Friday, May 31, 2013

STI is oversold & my Commodities Picks

STI is oversold , according to RSI. This follows the mass selling of stocks by Singapore investors this week, fuelled by speculation that the US Federal Reserves may be scaling back its quantitative easing following news that the economy of US may be getting better. I find it interesting to decipher that investors’ sentiments now rely on speculation rather than actual concrete economic data coming from the US or the Europe. Besides stocks, REITs is another category that see its value declining as investors worry that the low-interest rates may be replaced with higher interest rates as the liquidity-churning mechanism (QE) is further reined in. Now, STI is oversold, and for investors who are bold enough, this is the time to go bargain hunting. Noble Group is my top pick as though like other stocks, it is oversold, if you look at the price now, it is really very attractive to enter into buying more of this stocks and the resistance is around $1.025.

Thursday, May 30, 2013

ASIA PAY TV TRUST: why no perform well?

ASIA PAY TV TRUST debuted on the SGX yesterday, closing 5% south. I believe investors who have subscribed to many lots and have gotten many lots of ASIA PAY TV TRUST stocks would definitely not be very happy. For the IPO stocks which have debuted on SGX this year, almost all of the stocks performed very well on their first day of trading on SGX hence it is really a surprise to many that ASIA PAY TV TRUST did not only perform below expectation, it slided 5% down on just the first day of trading. This begs the question why did ASIA PAY TV TRUST not perform well?

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

SPH REIT

SPH REIT - It is announced yesterday that SPH will be going ahead with a REIT that will include its Paragon mall and Clementi Mall. There will be another addition to the property portfolio of SPH and that is, from what I read in the newspapers some weeks ago: Seletar Mall. I believe the news of such a Reit can only enhance the net worth of SPH. SPH has been managing its print business till its foray into retail properties and other forms of business. I can see that SPH can grow to a point where it becomes a conglomerate like F&N so much so that it may attract foreign investors to buy out a part of it businesses. That, to me is the hallmark of success of a local company. I think SPH and F&N are one of the better managed government-linked companies and that is so as they are bold enough to venture into other forms of businesses. SMRT and NOL stock which are lagging now can one day take on a more aggressive business model and reward shareholders.

Monday, May 27, 2013

My perspectives on IPO stocks and Investments

The IPO stocks market in Singapore is set abuzz once again with the IPOs of a slew of new stocks like SoilBuild Construction, Asia Pay TV Trust and more. I have quite a number of colleagues who subscribe to each of these IPO offerings with the aim to achieve some “coffee money” profits from selling these stocks on the 1st day of listing provided that these stocks debut with a profit. I know from my experience that it is not always that the IPO stocks will debut with a northwards direction, though the probability of these stocks debuting higher than their IPO prices is really higher. For example, SoilBuild IPO opened today at 38 cents, 13 cents or almost 50% higher than its IPO price. I believe the most rationale thing for those who are successfully allotted IPO shares is to quickly sell these shares to lock in a profit before the stock price heads south. Usually, unless an investor has deep pockets, the number of lots allocated to him is usually 1 to 2 lots. Even with 1 lot of SoilBuild IPO, if the investor is to quickly sell the stock at $0.38, he will reap a profit of around $70 after transaction fees. Based on what I have discussed, IPOs seem to be really attractive in earnings a fast profit with just $2 transaction fee to be paid if the investor does not get the stock he subscribes.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Singapore Stocks Outlook

Singapore’s STI headed south by 1.77% last Friday, following the speech by the Chief of Federal Reserves. This 1.77% is really a number compared to the sideways movement of STI that investors have seen in weeks. STI’s performance is in line with what other foreign bourses experiences. But unlike other southward movement of STI, I could see that REITs are affected as well last Friday. Many otherwise defensive REITs headed south by quite a large percentage. Even AIMSAMPI Reit also headed south by 5.191%. And this performance is replicated across the spectrum of REITs on SGX. The performance of the REITs last Friday is not surprising as according to the speech by Chief of Federal Reserves, investors somehow got the idea that low interest rates may be replaced by higher interest rates thus rendering REITs unattractive. On the other hand, Federal Reserves’ speech is also interpreted by investors that the economic situation in US and Europe may not be fully resolved hence this affects stocks as well. It is interesting to see how the local market fares in the coming week. I think there will be some bargain hunters, especially for REITs. Just to share, I observed Cambridge REIT traded like a top volume stock last Friday with an intra-day low of $0.645, an intra-high of $0.845 and a closing price of $0.805. An experienced trader can easily lock in handsome profits, via Contra, doing intra-day trading on Cambridge REIT last Friday. I am quite keen to enter the stock market, buying up some stocks but it seems to me that now is still not the time to enter the market.

Friday, May 24, 2013

CEDAR STOCK

CEDAR STOCK topped the top volume stocks and gainer stocks today. By noon today, CEDAR STOCK price was at $0.012. CEDAR STOCK is a penny stock which made both the top volume stocks and top gainer stocks today following news that Cedar group is going to acquire some properties in China. So with all the frenzy, is it time to head into the stock market and buy Cedar CEDAR STOCK  now?


I always believe that when we invest, we should always understand the nature of business of the stock that we are buying into. With this mindset, let us now take a quick look at the business of Cedar since I myself am also not sure what the business of Cedar stock is.

Cedar is actually Cedar Strategic Holdings Limited. Cedar was actually called China Titanium which dealt with Titanium dioxide. The company exited its Titanium dioxide business and turned its business into property business and takes on the name after Cedar a strong and valuable tree.

Okay, with all of the above, how does the business of Cedar bode well for investors? That is where I look at the financial figures of Cedar. I think I may be old as I am not able to obtain financial ratios of Cedar from its “Investor Relations” webpage. However, I am able to work out the NAV of Cedar as follows:

Thursday, May 23, 2013

TEE LAND IPO STOCK

TEE LAND IPO is the latest IPO stock that intends to be listed on SGX. TEE LAND is the real estate unit of Tee International. The property portfolio of TEE LAND IPO comprises 24 projects worth $394.6 million as at Nov 2012. TEE LAND IPO stock may be priced at $0.50. If we read the newspapers, it seems that TEE LAND IPO stock is now open for subscription but if you are to look at the SGX website, you will not find TEE LAND IPO prospectus there. Why? Well TEE LAND has only TEE Land lodged its preliminary IPO prospectus with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, but TEE Land still needs to meet several conditions to complete its listing. This includes having to raise at least $20m from its IPO at an issue price of $0.50 or more per share, and having a market cap of $150m or more at the time of the IPO. What I read that is quite unique about TEE LAND IPO is that TEE LAND IPO will also invest in Thailand property.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

XMH Stock

XMH stock is now the rage these days as investors chase up the stock after the former CEO of DBS bank, Koh Boon Hwee made a substantial acquisition of XMH stock . XMH stock stock made it to one of the top volume and top gainer stocks on SGX yesterday. With so much frenzy over XMH stock , I went online to read up more about XMH company instead of following the rest of the crowd and buy into XMH stock immediately, without knowing much about the company.

XMH is the initials of “Xin Ming Hua”. XMH deals in power generation and diesel generation equipment for the marine and industrial communities. The main activities of XMH are in provision of value-added services, distribution of power and diesel generation equipment, after-sales services and trading. XMH was listed on SGX in year 2011, no wonder that I found XMH stock name familiar. On XMH website, I went into the “Investor Relations”, but did not really find too much financial information regarding the company for my analysis.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Sell (stocks) in May and go away?

Amidst all the market actions on the SGX, it is important to keep a level-head at all times and take a step back some time to keep stock of what is happening on the stocks market. I mean, it is quite easy to get excited with the buzz of hot stocks with emotions becoming high. Hence, an attribute that I often think is necessary for investment success is Discipline; I will leave this topic of “ingredients of investment success” to another blog post, today I will just share my feelings of the general outlook as of now.

The adage “Sell (stocks) in May and go away” is not really applicable for this month as our STI index hovers beyond the 3,400 mark. Many stocks especially the telecommunication stocks have reached a high price. Commodity stocks like Golden Agriculture and Wilmar are still lagging behind in stock prices. Based on the RSI level, the STI is now in the Overbought level. So will prices of stock head further up or down?

Monday, May 20, 2013

WE HOLDINGS stock

WE HOLDINGS STOCK continued to hog the most-traded stock (by volume) on SGX today with a trading range of $0.11 to $0.114. WE HOLDINGS STOCK , by virtue of the price value of the stock is a penny stock and together with other penny stocks, WE HOLDINGS STOCK has been making the top volume stocks. Last Friday, WE HOLDINGS announced that it will be selling its electronic business to Serial Systems and this translates into buying sentiments among the investors today.

When we have such high sentiments surrounding a highly traded penny stock like WE HOLDINGS STOCK , it is easy to follow the crowd and enter into the stock market. If one enters at the right timing, he may earn some profits, even via contra but to me, I subscribe to Warren Buffet’s line of thinking which is to understand the fundamentals of the business first.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

SOILBUILD IPO seeks to raise $42 million

SOILBUILD IPO will seek to raise $42 million via offering 168 million shares at 25 cents each. SOILBUILD IPO opened yesterday and will close at 12 noon on May 22. Of the 168 million shares, 2 million shares are for public offer and the remaining 166 million shares are for placement. SOILBUILD is not new to me as it was previously listed in SGX in 2005 but was taken in 2010 owing to low trading volumes and an undervalued share price. Since the delisting, SOILBUILD has entered the public housing market and third-party agreements. SOILBUILD has a track record in public sector projects and this puts them in good stead as SOILBUILD competes in future tenders by HDB and other public agencies. Moving forward, SOILBUILD is exploring business expansion in Asia and since 2013, it has secured contracts in Myanmar.

Friday, May 17, 2013

China MinZhong stock

China MinZhong stock is hovering at around $1.04 in stock price. China MinZhong stock, as we can see from the name, is a S-chip stock. When local investors learn of the term “S-chip”, the feeling that may strike into the hearts of some of them is that of fear; this is because some local investors have experienced some S-chip stocks which were simply not good and that have cost their pockets. This explains why there is a lacklustre interest in S-chip stocks in the stock markets currently. I think that when one is to buy into a S-chip stock or in fact any other stock, the two most important factors that he must consider are what is the business model like and how is the management like. While we cannot really tell from the annual reports how the management is like, coupled with the fact that management changes over time, we can determine the business model of an enterprise and what are the various factors that will shape the business of the enterprise.

Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust IPO

Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust will be seeking to raise $$1.4 billion in an upcoming IPO in Singapore. Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust IPO will be Singapore’s 2nd biggest so far this year. Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust IPO will be priced at $0.97 and the IPO subscription commences today 17 May 2013. Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust is an investment vehicle of Taiwan Broadband Communications, Taiwan's biggest pay-TV operator, which is owned by two funds managed by Australia's Macquarie Group Ltd. Both funds plan to sell their stakes to Asian Pay Television Trust. Asia Pay Television (TV) Trust was oversubscribed by three times when it opened to institutional investors.There aree 9 conerstone investors and they are: Asian Century Quest, Capital Research and Management, Eastspring Investments (part of Prudential),Indus Capital,Lion Global Investors,Neuberger Berman,Och Ziff,Signature Global Advisors and Quantum Partners (Soros). So will I subscribe to the IPO? Well I do not understand the business, I will not subscribe, it’s as simple as that.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Hu An Cable Stock

Hu An cable stock has announced its earnings results for the quarter till 31 March 2013. I think not many investors know Hu An cable stock has announced its quarterly earnings report as the media spotlight has always been trained on the earnings announcements of market darlings which are mostly the STI constituent stocks. Hu An cable is a S-chip stock that specialises in a paraphernalia of electrical products like cables and wires. Hu An cable stock has been a market laggard mainly because, in my opinion, it is still a S-chip stock inherently despite the “China story” which will potentially require a great electrical infrastructure building that will benefit the stock price of Hu An cable. Hu An cable stock price is also not helped too much by the modest economy we see in China. And that modest economy of China has translated into a non-impressive results of Hu An latest earning results as well. I do not have the exact figure now of the comparison as these results depends on our comparison periods which can be from the last quarter of year 2012 or the corresponding quarter in year 2012. Anyway, if there are some bright sparks from the earning reports, it is the improved profit margin of one of the key business segments of Hu An’s business which is at 18.2%.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Golden Agriculture Resources stock

Golden Agriculture Resources (GAR) stock net profits Q1’13 headed south by approximately 21% as compared with Q1’12. To me, this figure is actually quite good considering the high stockpile of crude palm oil (CPO) and the low CPO prices that we have. I believe investors also share the same feeling as myself as GAR’s stock price headed 2 cents higher to close at approximately 55 cents today. The Chairman and CEO of GAR remains bullish on the crude palm oil outlook, read the financial results of GAR and the Chairman’s statement here .

I have quite a good number of stocks of GAR and though I now hold these stocks below the price that I paid for, I believe it is just a matter of time that the crude palm oil recovery will translate back into the 73 cents to 81 cents which is the high stock price trading range that GAR has reached. It is good to read that GAR has also explored the China market via the downstream product market like vegetable oils. I shared with the viewpoints of GAR’s CEO and Chairman that it is still quite challenging to navigate the China market.

As I read the Business Times today, I read the sentence that although GAR has a share buy-back policy, GAR’s management is not currently exploring this option as it believes that its business fundamentals are still robust and the crude palm oil industry outlook is still good. Contrast this reading with the report of the Business Times a week ago, read it here: htt; then there was a report that there could be a buy-out mounted by the Widjaja family to take Golden Agriculture Resources private.

Monday, May 13, 2013

Property Investments Clubs

There is an increasing number of property investments clubs in Singapore, which offer investors the opportunities to earn returns from property investments. So how do these property investments clubs work? Well, though I have not been to any of these property clubs’ “free previews”, but more or less I know their modus operandi, which in essence is “Strength in numbers” as I shall elaborate further.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Golden Agriculture stock & Noble Group stock

Golden Agriculture will release its earnings tomorrow. This will be followed by Noble Group on Tuesday. I find that the earnings report release will determine the direction of the two commodities stock in the interim. The stock prices of these two commodity stocks have been in the doldrums for quite some months already. These two stocks have prices which are really at a discount currently and hence any good news in the earnings reports of these two stocks will likely see some upbeat rise in their stock prices. STI is currently hovering around 3,400 but the stock prices of these two commodities are not on par with the current good level of the STI. The high stockpiles of CPO leads to Golden Agriculture stock price to be in the current trading range of $0.55. I see this just as a industrial situation which will recover. Just some months ago, the marine & offshore sector is also in doubt, but just look at Kreuz stock which has since gain 20 cents to reach around 65 cents!

Friday, May 10, 2013

STI: are we on a bull run?

The STI has charged past the 3,400 mark. With this uptrend, the economic outlook in US, the current apparent “stabilization” of the Eurozone debt crisis, it is easy to believe that the Singapore stock market here is on a bull run next. Analysts have forecasted that the STI could even surge to the 3,600 mark. However, from all my analysis, the upsurge in the STI cascades down to only a select number and type of stocks here on SGX. Some laggard stocks, languishing currently remain to be laggards. Such stocks include commodities in the likes of Golden Agriculture and Noble Group. There is some rises in the above two stocks’ prices recently due to the good quarterly earnings announcement from another commodity player, Wilmar. We must wait till next week for the earning results of Golden Agriculture and Noble Group. I believe the earnings will be good for Noble Group as Noble Group announced the giving of dividends last week. Hence, it may be good time to buy Noble Group stock now as I expect some good earnings announcement for this stock.
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